What the HECK really happened to MH370?

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djrez4
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Postby djrez4 » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:05 pm

amexguy321 wrote:@SRT8
I think you may be going overboard with with the top5 airlines. According to SKYTRAX, Malaysia in included in the 5star rated airlines.
http://www.airlinequality.com/StarRanking/5star.htm
I usually stick to any of the airlines that either in the Star or One World Alliance. All of these airlines provide great service and safety standards. Usually I fly Lufthansa or United. Fingers crossed all will be well in the future, the next car accident may be just around the corner....


2013 Top 5 Airlines:
  1. Emirates - 0 accidents/incidents
  2. Qatar - 0 accidents/incidents
  3. Singapore - 2 accidents/incidents
  4. ANA - 13 accidents/incidents
  5. Asiana - 4 accidents/incidents

Malaysia is #14 and has 4 accidents/incidents. Air Canada is #19 with 11 accidents/incidents. We don't even get to a US legacy carrier until Delta at #45 (14 accidents/incidents).

If we're talking ICAO compliance, there are only two categories - Category 1 (compliant) and Category 2 (non-compliant).

If you trust Business Insider, Malaysia is #2 in the world behind Singapore.

I don't know what you consider to be Top 5, SRT, but it does seem a bit arbitrary. Accidents and incidents don't discriminate.

(Accident/incident info pulled from Wikipedia.)

As to my personal opinion, I don't think any foul play was involved. I agree with JoDa - emergency coordinates were pre-programmed and executed. We already know the turn was programmed into the computer before the flight went dark. There is also precedent for a 777 cockpit going up in flames very quickly (see EgyptAir Flight 667) and for a plane going through decompression, all crew and passengers dying, and then the plane continuing to fly until out of fuel. (see Payne Stewart's Leerjet). We may not know what happened until (or if) the CVR and FDR are found. We may never know. But I don't see any evidence for the wacky conspiracy theories floating around - alien abduction, terrorists saving the plane for later, pilot suicide, etc. Occam's Razor - simplest explanation is probably the correct one.
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sakhalin
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Postby sakhalin » Wed Apr 02, 2014 12:33 pm

Regarding the electrical fire theory, didn't they say the transponders were manually shut off? And that they were manually shut off (2 separate systems) 12 or 14 minutes apart BEFORE the final sign off?
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darkguy2
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Postby darkguy2 » Wed Apr 02, 2014 1:22 pm

What proof is there that the systems were shut off manually? It could be that they went off because of the electrical fire but was not noticed till after the sign off. It is standard procedure to shut off everything to try to stop the fire and then try to turn each system back on to isolate the problem. It could be by the time they got to that point the radio was down and they could not call in to inform anyone what was happening. Maybe the first sign of trouble that they noticed was that the radio was no longer working.
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FastSRT8
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Postby FastSRT8 » Wed Apr 02, 2014 3:56 pm

OK... I guess I stand corrected.

The top 5 comment is mine alone and represents my own biased personal thoughts.

I guess for where I live and what is available to me for international travel, I would be selecting the following carriers only...

* Cathay Pacific
* Lufthansa
* Air Canada
* United
* British Airways

Again, these are based on the airlines that service my city Vancouver. The airlines mentioned have great First Class service (if available) or business class.
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nismoZtuner
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Postby nismoZtuner » Wed Apr 02, 2014 5:57 pm

djrez4 wrote:We may never know. But I don't see any evidence for the wacky conspiracy theories floating around - alien abduction, terrorists saving the plane for later, pilot suicide, etc. Occam's Razor - simplest explanation is probably the correct one.


May be just maybe (hahah) they found a wormhole...

When I first found about this mystery I dreamed of a plane going on fire while still flying.. Strange-
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darkguy2
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Postby darkguy2 » Wed Apr 02, 2014 6:05 pm

My favorite one was the mini-black hole. Makes perfect sense until you realize that one really existed it would have destroyed our solar system along with the plane.
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Postby JoDa » Thu Apr 03, 2014 6:58 pm

cashback wrote:The word heavy has nothing to do with the aircraft's current weight. A completely empty 777 would still be considered a heavy.


Ah, good to know. I'm only an "expert" in aviation in so far as I listen to Channel 9 to put myself to sleep, fly a lot, and had a dad with a GA license. Of course 777's are BIG planes full or empty, but I always thought the "heavy" related to full vs. empty weight.

I actually overheard a pretty funny ATC comm on Channel 9 related to this one time. We were taxiing at Dulles (777 fully-loaded to fly direct to Tokyo), and the pilot asked for his runway assignment with "United XXX heavy." Ground control came back with a runway assignment and the pilot went back with "United XXX heavy, DID YOU MISS THE *HEAVY*?" "Oh, shoot, yes...United XXX heavy, how about runway Y instead?" "United XXX heavy, that's better, runway Y it is." I take the fact that I chuckled, instead of freaked out, at that to mean I'm firmly cured of my prior fear of flying... (also that pilots are real pros and everyone should take a couple seconds to thank them for driving like I do, whenever possible)

Also, one more, don't mind me when you're flying. We almost had to do an emergency diversion on a flight I was on last summer due to a medical emergency on board. When the pilot announced where we were diverting to, I asked the FA "we're not getting out of there if we land there, are we?" She gave me the "I'm not allowed to say this, but no" look and said "we'll figure out how to get you where you're going, whatever happens." My seat-mate was all "wait...are we going to crash?" I smiled and told her no, but we need less space to land than take off, so if we land in podunkville, we'll have to be re-booked on smaller planes to get going again. She was...less than convinced that I knew what I was talking about. Fortunately, we were able to make it to a larger airport where we could continue on our way normally and on the same plane, but I didn't mean to freak anyone out, I just wanted to confirm that it would be a day or more before I got home so I could blast out messages to everyone expecting me home as soon as we landed (my dog-sitter, my boss, etc.). Also, I was only concerned with making the notifications...of course I don't want anyone to DIE or suffer major medical consequences for my *convenience.* I was rolling with the situation except that I wanted - needed - to let some people know I could be stranded for a little while as soon as we hit the ground.
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JoDa
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Postby JoDa » Thu Apr 03, 2014 7:05 pm

sakhalin wrote:Regarding the electrical fire theory, didn't they say the transponders were manually shut off? And that they were manually shut off (2 separate systems) 12 or 14 minutes apart BEFORE the final sign off?


I read an article from a pilot that indicated this would happen if there was an electrical fire. Apparently the first action is to "pull the plugs" to try to stop the electrical current feeding the fire. This has happened in other cases of electrical fire (the pilot/author cited a few incidents where the plugs were manually pulled in fires). And there's some question about exactly when the plugs were pulled. Sure, if before the hand-over, that raises some suspicion, but it could have been a growing but not yet obvious mechanical failure at that point. Given the confusion over what was said and done and when, PLUS the lack of ANYONE claiming "see, we can take down a plane," I just am not buying anything but catastrophic failure until someone PROVES it.
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JoDa
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Postby JoDa » Thu Apr 03, 2014 7:42 pm

darkguy2 wrote:What proof is there that the systems were shut off manually? It could be that they went off because of the electrical fire but was not noticed till after the sign off. It is standard procedure to shut off everything to try to stop the fire and then try to turn each system back on to isolate the problem. It could be by the time they got to that point the radio was down and they could not call in to inform anyone what was happening. Maybe the first sign of trouble that they noticed was that the radio was no longer working.


Also the order of operations for pilots, on that front...aviate, navigate, THEN communicate. The "miracle on the Hudson" amply demonstrates this principle. If you listen to the ATC from that flight, the pilots did communicate as possible, but stopped communicating as they brought the plane in, despite several requests from ATC for information. They were busy aviating and needed to focus on that.
I, personally, consider this a GOOD trait in pilots...worry about getting us down in one piece, tell the story later.
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Postby JoDa » Thu Apr 03, 2014 9:52 pm

Finally, I will note, the "order of operations" (aviate, navigate, communicate) is employed in even minor situations. I was once on an early-morning flight with a friend when I turned to her and said "we turned around...we're going back to the airport." She laughed and said "you don't know what you're talking about." I said "yes, I do...the moon was on your side and the sun on mine 5 minutes ago, and now it's reversed. We're set to fly north, but we're now flying south." Within seconds of finishing this statement the captain finally announced that we were going back to the airport because of a *minor* mechanical issue. We were fine, but we couldn't make our destination. I just raised an eyebrow at my friend, and then schooled her in how frequent flyers (and their trusty companions) get rebooked before they even get off the plane. ;) We made it home only 45 minutes later than planned. :)
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