The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

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4ktvs
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby 4ktvs » Sun Jan 31, 2016 2:30 pm

Nixon wrote:
4ktvs wrote:So it's starting to look like the fed might chicken out on the rate hike. But I hope they don't and I would like to see the rate go over %1 by the end of the year. It has been long overdue as right now we are at the floor and have no where to go if the system goes largely into default again.


I hope they don't.

Negative interest next crash!
Bank pays YOU to borrow!


One thing I can be sure of, MF will blow up about the ton of AA that will happen upon the next crash. There always is a crash, it's part of the natural cycle due to greed that binds those who think it's a one way street. When in fact the market is a two way street and will always find a way to balance the flow. The harder people push it up, the harder the push back will be from the natural market forces.

The fed should for once do what is right for the long term and force the interest rates higher in spite of what is good for the stock market today.


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CarefulBuilder14
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby CarefulBuilder14 » Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:47 pm

4ktvs wrote:One thing I can be sure of, MF will blow up about the ton of AA that will happen upon the next crash. There always is a crash, it's part of the natural cycle due to greed that binds those who think it's a one way street. When in fact the market is a two way street and will always find a way to balance the flow. The harder people push it up, the harder the push back will be from the natural market forces.

The fed should for once do what is right for the long term and force the interest rates higher in spite of what is good for the stock market today.

Given how quickly card philosophies change there, and the frequency with which people go from getting premium travel cards for signup bonuses to paying interest on carried balances, I have to wonder how much possible AA will be left by the time of the next crash or major credit contraction. Among credit enthusiasts who get hit with AA, it seems borrowers mostly bring it upon themselves, and don't need any help from macroeconomic problems.
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Vattené
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby Vattené » Tue Feb 02, 2016 2:41 pm

CarefulBuilder14 wrote:Given how quickly card philosophies change there, and the frequency with which people go from getting premium travel cards for signup bonuses to paying interest on carried balances, I have to wonder how much possible AA will be left by the time of the next crash or major credit contraction. Among credit enthusiasts who get hit with AA, it seems borrowers mostly bring it upon themselves, and don't need any help from macroeconomic problems.

When and if it happens, perhaps lenders will be quick to just shut them down completely. Customers with recent AA as in CLDs could be a good area to look for highest risk and lowest hanging fruit. Just speculation. When times get tough banks certainly won't need them as customers. *edited to add: they would also need to not be carrying balances to be shut down relatively immediately, and if you believe MF tales PIFers get AA constantly...so not a quick fix by any means*
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kdm31091
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby kdm31091 » Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:08 pm

CarefulBuilder14 wrote:
4ktvs wrote:One thing I can be sure of, MF will blow up about the ton of AA that will happen upon the next crash. There always is a crash, it's part of the natural cycle due to greed that binds those who think it's a one way street. When in fact the market is a two way street and will always find a way to balance the flow. The harder people push it up, the harder the push back will be from the natural market forces.

The fed should for once do what is right for the long term and force the interest rates higher in spite of what is good for the stock market today.

Given how quickly card philosophies change there, and the frequency with which people go from getting premium travel cards for signup bonuses to paying interest on carried balances, I have to wonder how much possible AA will be left by the time of the next crash or major credit contraction. Among credit enthusiasts who get hit with AA, it seems borrowers mostly bring it upon themselves, and don't need any help from macroeconomic problems.


To me it seems like a lot of people there go for too many cards, especially premium ones, then get in over their heads and overspend trying to get rewards, or justify a fee or perks. Instead of accepting that every card doesn't fit every person, they try to make it fit their lifestyle and end up in debt.

The philosophies change weekly on there. This week, it's to avoid Barclay and comenity because they make people own up to aggressive credit seeking. :rolleyes:

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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby 4ktvs » Thu Feb 11, 2016 9:48 am

The fed seems like they want to leave the door open on negative interest rates. If the fed ever does do that, then I fear a run on the banks would likely happen.

I think we might now become the next japan and the events leading up to that are unfolding before us now. I really hope the fed does the right thing and stays the course on increasing the rates but sadly they have shown such incompliance toward handing policy that I have my doubts.

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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby JonE » Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:18 pm

According to a MF thread, the 5/24 rule on co-branded cards is happening. Let the outrage begin. :rolleyes:
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby 4ktvs » Thu Feb 11, 2016 1:45 pm

JonE wrote:According to a MF thread, the 5/24 rule on co-branded cards is happening. Let the outrage begin. :rolleyes:


It will be fun to read the rage quit threads on that if they really do it. I only question this due to the number of reports I have read or heard about where a person that has more than 5 credit cards in two years still gets approved for a non co-brand card like the Freedom or CSP.

kdm31091
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby kdm31091 » Thu Feb 11, 2016 2:27 pm

JonE wrote:According to a MF thread, the 5/24 rule on co-branded cards is happening. Let the outrage begin. :rolleyes:


Honestly, it's a good thing. Perhaps -- just PERHAPS -- the crackdown will cause some of the sad addicts to find a new hobby or something and realize that at the end of the day, your life isn't going to end because you can't get a United Mileage card every few months or whatever.

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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby Nixon » Thu Feb 11, 2016 4:03 pm

kdm31091 wrote:
JonE wrote:According to a MF thread, the 5/24 rule on co-branded cards is happening. Let the outrage begin. :rolleyes:


Honestly, it's a good thing. Perhaps -- just PERHAPS -- the crackdown will cause some of the sad addicts to find a new hobby or something and realize that at the end of the day, your life isn't going to end because you can't get a United Mileage card every few months or whatever.


You really are a masochist, sir.

The 5/24 rule is iffy for their own products but I understand as UR's actually cost them money.

Cobranded cards 5/24? Screw that BS. The partner is the one largely footing the rewards bill. The bonus points they pay next to nothing for if they aren't part of the partnership as is. I guess it won't affect most people but MyFako isn't even the worst of it. FT, Dansdeals will go apeshit over this.
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby 4ktvs » Sat Mar 12, 2016 11:21 pm

The market is betting on interest rates not going over %.5-1 in the next 6-10 years world wide.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-globa ... SKCN0WB1QG

The Fed needs to push forward with rate hikes or else 2008 might not be the worst macroeconomic collapse of the 21st century after all later down the road.



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