The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

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4ktvs
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby 4ktvs » Fri Jan 15, 2016 12:56 pm

I think wall street is going to be upset and I think those with 401k's are going to be upset this year.

As I have said before money is now going to flow out of the market and anyone still long on the market is going against the trend that is unfolding before us thanks to the upcoming interest rate hikes.


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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby CarefulBuilder14 » Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:06 pm

4ktvs wrote:I think wall street is going to be upset and I think those with 401k's are going to be upset this year.

As I have said before money is now going to flow out of the market and anyone still long on the market is going against the trend that is unfolding before us thanks to the upcoming interest rate hikes.

Money doesn't really flow out of (or into) a market like that. I know it's a popular expression, but the fact remains that every transaction has a buyer and a seller. What the buyer pays, the seller gets (less commissions).

Asset prices rise and fall, and credit may be tightened or loosened, but that's all independent of market-wide cash flows. Money only "flows" in a limited sense when assets are put onto, or taken off of, the public markets.

Money may flow out of 401(k) plans, but that just means there will be different asset owners.
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby 4ktvs » Fri Jan 15, 2016 1:20 pm

I know it's an expression. Really the big players are really just changing sides from wanting to go long to going short instead.

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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby Nixon » Fri Jan 15, 2016 2:15 pm

4ktvs wrote:I think wall street is going to be upset and I think those with 401k's are going to be upset this year.

As I have said before money is now going to flow out of the market and anyone still long on the market is going against the trend that is unfolding before us thanks to the upcoming interest rate hikes.


That's why I will be taking half my 401K out on a loan and paying myself back interest (4%) out of my salary while shoving the withdrawn into a nice 2.5% 30mo CD from NFCU.

This takes care of our wavering position regarding tax brackets and at the same time insulates me from at least some of the damage.
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby kdm31091 » Sun Jan 17, 2016 11:04 am

CarefulBuilder14 wrote:Let's see how long they can last when they treat their unprofitable customers that way! :ppp

The SM signup bonus is small, but they can't support the rewards program by buying a lot of cheap hotel/airline/cruise points from the co-brand partners. Cash rewards cost more.


Exactly. 5% on up to $250 in each category, while not being "a lot of money" in real terms, becomes significant when they have to pay it out to a bunch of cardholders - it's cold hard cash, not points or miles. So I am not even slightly surprised that it was closed to new apps.

I'm waiting for the day existing users are converted to something else (because inevitably it's going to happen eventually). All hell will break loose.

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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby 4ktvs » Sun Jan 17, 2016 10:58 pm

kdm31091 wrote:
CarefulBuilder14 wrote:Let's see how long they can last when they treat their unprofitable customers that way! :ppp

The SM signup bonus is small, but they can't support the rewards program by buying a lot of cheap hotel/airline/cruise points from the co-brand partners. Cash rewards cost more.


Exactly. 5% on up to $250 in each category, while not being "a lot of money" in real terms, becomes significant when they have to pay it out to a bunch of cardholders - it's cold hard cash, not points or miles. So I am not even slightly surprised that it was closed to new apps.

I'm waiting for the day existing users are converted to something else (because inevitably it's going to happen eventually). All hell will break loose.


I really wanted the card, but I had this feeling that such a card wouldn't last. Then they took it down from the main page but a direct link still worked. I knew then it was going out the door. I didn't apply as I didn't want to waste a HP on something that might not even be there the next year.

I am just kind of shocked that such a product existed in the first place. MF will really blow up when they kill this card for existing users, I would hope they get a choice as to what they PC to but from what I understand that isn't how that normally works. That or they just kill the rewards and don't convert them to anything.

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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby kdm31091 » Mon Jan 18, 2016 7:15 am

4ktvs wrote:
kdm31091 wrote:
CarefulBuilder14 wrote:Let's see how long they can last when they treat their unprofitable customers that way! :ppp

The SM signup bonus is small, but they can't support the rewards program by buying a lot of cheap hotel/airline/cruise points from the co-brand partners. Cash rewards cost more.


Exactly. 5% on up to $250 in each category, while not being "a lot of money" in real terms, becomes significant when they have to pay it out to a bunch of cardholders - it's cold hard cash, not points or miles. So I am not even slightly surprised that it was closed to new apps.

I'm waiting for the day existing users are converted to something else (because inevitably it's going to happen eventually). All hell will break loose.


I really wanted the card, but I had this feeling that such a card wouldn't last. Then they took it down from the main page but a direct link still worked. I knew then it was going out the door. I didn't apply as I didn't want to waste a HP on something that might not even be there the next year.

I am just kind of shocked that such a product existed in the first place. MF will really blow up when they kill this card for existing users, I would hope they get a choice as to what they PC to but from what I understand that isn't how that normally works. That or they just kill the rewards and don't convert them to anything.


Usually when this sort of thing happens, the existing users are either given a very limited set of choices (like arrival or arrival+) or no choice at all. I very much doubt it will be anything like "choose whichever Barclay product you want", even though that'd be nice.

You probably made a wise choice not apping. Sometimes companies take awhile to change things for existing users (the Travelocity amex was just converted to arrival for existing users and that card has been gone a long time), but it does happen eventually.

A few people apped at that last second you describe -- when the advertisement page was gone from the site but the direct link still worked. Some got approved and seemed very proud. Squeaking in at the last second still guarantees you nothing in the long term, so not sure how it was any different than any other existing cardholder. :rolleyes:

Sometimes you do wonder how it ever existed kind of like the Cash+ having no caps and things like bill pay at one time. I guess companies try things out and if it's a huge mistake they quickly pull back on it. Sallie lasted awhile, but IMO that's because no one outside of the forum world knew about it.

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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby Vattené » Mon Jan 18, 2016 11:06 am

I got it a little before they took it down. Had I known at the time that applications would be closing soon I may not have applied for it, but I have it now so I'll get the most out of it I can while it lasts and just have to see what my options are when it is inevitably discontinued. It's a cash back card, so it's not like I'm building up points in a system that will be dead soon. The rewards will be just as useful up until the point that the card finally dies.

I agree basically the only people that knew about it were probably people using it for 5% and little else. I think the SM may have had better chances if it weren't such a niche card. If it were marketed more heavily (and not co-branded with Sallie Mae student loans or at least made more clear you don't need Sallie Mae student loans to get value from the card), more of the general public may have gotten it and it may have had more use as a general spending card overall. Ah well, that's just the nature of rewards programs. It's nice if they last a long time, but one can't rely on it.
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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby kdm31091 » Tue Jan 19, 2016 8:58 am

Vattené wrote:I got it a little before they took it down. Had I known at the time that applications would be closing soon I may not have applied for it, but I have it now so I'll get the most out of it I can while it lasts and just have to see what my options are when it is inevitably discontinued. It's a cash back card, so it's not like I'm building up points in a system that will be dead soon. The rewards will be just as useful up until the point that the card finally dies.

I agree basically the only people that knew about it were probably people using it for 5% and little else. I think the SM may have had better chances if it weren't such a niche card. If it were marketed more heavily (and not co-branded with Sallie Mae student loans or at least made more clear you don't need Sallie Mae student loans to get value from the card), more of the general public may have gotten it and it may have had more use as a general spending card overall. Ah well, that's just the nature of rewards programs. It's nice if they last a long time, but one can't rely on it.


Right. Other than rotating cards like Freedom and Discover, pretty much every 5% card has either been discontinued (Citi Forward, Sallie Mae), or changed considerably (Cash+). Permanent 5% cards just don't seem to be sustainable. The rewards programs that have stuck around longer are the more "basic" ones: 1% on purchases, 2-3% on certain things. While those are unexciting to us, those are the ones that are likely sustainable. If Citi doesn't make expected profit with the Double Cash I have no doubt in my mind it will be pulled eventually for example. Quicksilver with 1.5% is probably borderline, but Capital One has a lot of "starter" customers who likely pay interest (at 23% etc) so that probably helps.

I agree had it not had the "Sallie Mae" branding it may have been more popular but I doubt Barclay's would have offered it as just a straight Barclay offering. I assume because it was cobranded, some of the costs were shared. As you stated, it's cash, not points, so it's expensive compared to points systems (where the issuer can change the value around to suit their profit needs).

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Re: The what you think will happen this year (2016) thread

Postby Vattené » Tue Jan 19, 2016 1:24 pm

One thing in Citi's favor in the sustainability of the Double Cash is offering no introductory bonus. The people that sign up for it are necessarily more interested in the long term value. I'm still not convinced it will stay around too terribly long (I don't have one myself), but I completely understand everyone that has signed on to get value from it for however long it lasts. Even if it is doomed to last forever, it's a new offering so it will probably stick around a few years.
-Vattené
FICO-8:
EX - 809 (11/16) | TU - 803 (11/16)
Primary Cards:
American Express EveryDay - $20,000 (10/14)
Discover it - $23,000 (2/14)
AU on Barclay Sallie Mae - $10,000 (8/15)
plus several store accounts of varying usefulness now



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