I have found my next source of temptation, though.
I was on Wyndham trying to book an award stay and found a hidden offer for 30k+15k after $1k spend. That's enough for 3 free nights for $1k spend and payment of a $69 AF. The renewal bonus is only 6k, though.
Still, over a three-year period (during or after which the card and/or program could easily be nerfed), the bonus and renewal points would be 76% of what I wanted. 76% of something great is still pretty good...but I'll hold off while minimum spend remains on Platinum and Prestige. I can probably snag some more points through USTA next year, anyway.
I'll pass. I won't really benefit that much from another 45k Wyndham points at present
I still think the bonus looks great for higher-end redemptions ($200+), and I'll probably go for it eventually, but for now I have a lot in the way of accumulated hotel points and certificates.
I could certainly use the points before they expire, but I'm unlikely to use them in the next three months or so (since I can use other points and perks). I've been pretty aggressive as far as getting new cards, and if I wait a few months, I'll have a few inquiries age/die, and more accounts hit two years of age. That should lower the risk of any AA.
So, as I see it, applying soon would involve:
Reward: Possibly 15k more points than I'd get if I applied another time...but points that I'm unlikely to actually use for 3+ months.
Risk: Elevated risk of AA on other cards, most of which I really want to keep.
So waiting seems to be the thing to do.