Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

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yfan
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Re: Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

Postby yfan » Fri Mar 10, 2017 1:41 pm

mountaindewvoltage wrote:Please gather some data and show me who outside of forums like this and MyFico actually uses extended warranties, dispute resolution, and price protection on their credit cards. I'm assuming 0.001%.

Sure, since you ask nicely. But since you made a claim about the number (0.001%), I'd think the onus is on you to prove that number you created out of thin air.

There's no doubt that those perks are rarely used - but not as rarely as you claim; estimates actually hover around 1% depending on the particular perk, making your guess off by a factor of 1,000 - but it's a fallacy to claim just because a benefit is rarely used that it cannot serve as a reason to get a product. In fact, that is very often the case.

How many of us have a AAA membership and rarely take advantage of AAA rates at hotels (either because we just miss it or because we have a better deal through another loyalty program)? It doesn't mean it's not one of the reasons people use to get a AAA membership. Heck, the whole purpose of getting insurance (home, auto, renters, whatever) is hoping that we don't have to use it! But that doesn't mean people don't get insurance. The selling power of "just in case" is greater than I imagine you think.

I'd also like to see the data regarding what percentage of millennials have an AMEX, because I'm almost positive that number is far less than 1% as well. I don't mean just the Platinum, I mean any AMEX.

Well, you may be almost positive, but yours is what is known in science as a false positive. And it's pretty easy to prove.

The total number of Amex credit and charge cards in circulation as of most recent data (2015ish) is 58 million, and the total number of millennials in the country number about 75 million. If your claim is correct and less than 1% of millennials have an Amex, we could safely assume that the number of AMEXes belonging to millennials is topped out at less than one million, given that half of millennials don't have credit cards, and the half that do average less than 2 cards each.

So if your 1% figure were correct, there would be more than 57 million Amexes in circulation among the roughly 175 million US adults who are not millennials. That would mean a whopping 30%+ of non-millennial adults have an Amex. This would be an even more eyepopping 40%+ of non-millennial adults who are credit card holders. (Math: 30% of 250 million US adults, or 75 million adults are do NOT have CCs, of them 37 million are millennials - i.e. half of all millennials - and thereby 38 million are non-CC holders non-millennial adults, which makes for 137 million non-millennial adult cardholders, of which there would have to be 57 million Amex cards if you are to be right). Given that even non-millennial cardholders average about 2.5 cards, it would make sense to assume that the number of Amexes in circulation is roughly equal to the number of Amex cardholders, as almost every cardholder also has a Visa.

In other words, your claim that no more than 1% of millennials in the US have an Amex would make it mathematically necessary for almost half of the rest of the US adult population to hold an Amex, and that is plainly not the case.

I'm not sure why you're having such a difficult time understanding this... Normal people don't care what logo is on their card... They just apply for a card, use it, and move on. You seem to think normal people stop and research what credit card they want to apply for.

Again, the Amex Platinum is NOT for "normal" people. And as has been pointed out before, one need not delve into the deep corners of credit card forums to understand the concept of a free checked bag on delta, or 6% cashback on groceries.

That's the whole idea of what I'm saying... Millennials; hence, "normal" people, are grouped in with those who just apply for a card, use it, and move on with their lives.

Sure, but again, this is a thread about the Amex Platinum. People who apply for a card, get it, and move on (which is, admittedly, most people) are not Amex's target market with the Platinum. I just don't think people interested in Amex are as rare a species of unicorns as you believe.

AMEX's "prestige" doesn't exist anymore, even with a Platinum card... Because the Platinum card is easy to get as long as you're willing to fork over the annual fee within 30 days, and I don't see AMEX changing that any time soon seeing as they're obviously desperate for business and growth in this day and age.

But it's the forking over the AF that's supposed to be the hard part and the barrier. You are the one that constantly keeps bringing up "prestige." I couldn't care less. And saying a company is "desperate" for business is a truism, because every business that hopes to continue in business is to some degree "desperate" for new customers, depending on your wiggle room on "desperate". It could be argued that that is why Chase launched the CSR.

With respect to the Platinum, we'll see in a year whether a whole lot of people drop it or more add it.


mountaindewvoltage
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Re: Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

Postby mountaindewvoltage » Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:43 pm

You're using a 2015 statistic for total number of AMEX cards? Do you remember they've lost Costco, Jet Blue, and Fidelity since then? I believe Costco by itself was roughly 10% of that 58 million number. That 58 million number is likely smaller, if I had to guess, around 45 million now, which considerably throws your percentages off.

So in reality there's probably 45 million AMEX cards among the 175 million adults who are not millennials and some have both a business and a personal AMEX, which would then lower the percentage of adults who have one even more. Re-do the math. The number is likely closer to 20% of non-millennials who actually have one or more AMEX cards in their wallet, which I do believe is a possibility. For every 10 customers that go through the grocery store checkout, two would have an AMEX in their wallet, does that number sound realistic to you?

I'm a millennial and have two AMEX's in my wallet... Do you really think I would be hating on the company for no reason, or do you think I'm telling you my honest opinion on the state of the company right now?
Last edited by mountaindewvoltage on Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

mountaindewvoltage
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Re: Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

Postby mountaindewvoltage » Fri Mar 10, 2017 7:44 pm

luvbullmarkets wrote:
mountaindewvoltage wrote: I had my 27 year old co-worker apply for an AMEX Blue (even though he wasn't interested in it, just did it because I asked him to) and he was approved.


Did you get a referral bonus from Amex?


No this was about two months before I signed on with AMEX.

yfan
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Re: Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

Postby yfan » Fri Mar 10, 2017 8:03 pm

mountaindewvoltage wrote:I'm a millennial and have two AMEX's in my wallet... Do you really think I would be hating on the company for no reason, or do you think I'm telling you my honest opinion on the state of the company right now?

Opinion and data are two different things. You can't say "in my opinion only 1% of millennials have Amex cards." That's not subject to opinion.

That being said, yes, 20% of non millennial cardholders with an Amex is more realistic, which would make for roughly 30 million amexes, leaving the other 15 million to millennials, even under your estimate of 45 million cards. 15 out of 75 is also, ummm.... 20%. Consider that half of millennials have no credit cards and then YOUR numbers are saying tha roughly 4 out of 10 millennial cardholders carry Amexes.

Btw, two things in your estimate are wrong. AMEX didn't lose all the customers from previous cobrand partners. For example, many Costco members were offered new cards that they accepted. I did. Same for other partners. AND, you're not accounting for the fact that Amex also organically added customers since 2015. It may still be at a net loss from the 58 million number, but nowhere near all the cobrand customers were losses. If you can find data (not opinion) to the contrary, please share.

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Re: Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

Postby mountaindewvoltage » Sat Mar 11, 2017 1:37 pm

yfan wrote:
mountaindewvoltage wrote:I'm a millennial and have two AMEX's in my wallet... Do you really think I would be hating on the company for no reason, or do you think I'm telling you my honest opinion on the state of the company right now?

Opinion and data are two different things. You can't say "in my opinion only 1% of millennials have Amex cards." That's not subject to opinion.

That being said, yes, 20% of non millennial cardholders with an Amex is more realistic, which would make for roughly 30 million amexes, leaving the other 15 million to millennials, even under your estimate of 45 million cards. 15 out of 75 is also, ummm.... 20%. Consider that half of millennials have no credit cards and then YOUR numbers are saying tha roughly 4 out of 10 millennial cardholders carry Amexes.

Btw, two things in your estimate are wrong. AMEX didn't lose all the customers from previous cobrand partners. For example, many Costco members were offered new cards that they accepted. I did. Same for other partners. AND, you're not accounting for the fact that Amex also organically added customers since 2015. It may still be at a net loss from the 58 million number, but nowhere near all the cobrand customers were losses. If you can find data (not opinion) to the contrary, please share.


Did you figure in that many have both a business and personal AMEX?

yfan
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Re: Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

Postby yfan » Sat Mar 11, 2017 3:28 pm

mountaindewvoltage wrote:Did you figure in that many have both a business and personal AMEX?

Not precisely, predominantly because most of the data I provided - you'll see if you click through them - comes from the New York Reserve's consumer credit data, not business credit data. Business credit data doesn't have the same reporting requirements to the fed.

Also, that's why I left them at approximations rather than precision calculations. If you can find data showing just how many have both a business and a personal Amex (not a guess, data), I'll be happy to incorporate it and calculate what the numbers would be if business credit counted towards consumer credit.

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CarefulBuilder14
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Re: Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

Postby CarefulBuilder14 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 4:02 pm

yfan wrote:But it's the forking over the AF that's supposed to be the hard part and the barrier. You are the one that constantly keeps bringing up "prestige." I couldn't care less. And saying a company is "desperate" for business is a truism, because every business that hopes to continue in business is to some degree "desperate" for new customers, depending on your wiggle room on "desperate". It could be argued that that is why Chase launched the CSR.

With respect to the Platinum, we'll see in a year whether a whole lot of people drop it or more add it.

I'm not sure what will happen with CSR. If it takes them five years to break even, that's a long time to go without major nerfs. United and Hyatt don't have the award charts they once did, which I suspect will increase the popularity of 1.5 cpp redemptions.

Platinum has perks like hotel status and Skyclub access that Amex can presumably buy at a discounted rate, but it looks to me like most of what makes CSR good costs Chase a lot of cash.

As far as changes in Platinum's popularity, we don't have to wait a year. Look for apps in the next few weeks and closures around September or October.

So I don't know what will happen...I don't know how sustainable CSR will be for Chase. In grocery checkout lines (where neither card earns bonus points), I know I see more Platinum cards than CSRs. It's transactions like those that make the cards profitable for issuers.
Warranties and sketchy merchants: Schwab Platinum
Price rewind: Costco
Travel insurance: Prestige, CSP
Perks: IHG, Hyatt
Rewards/Offers: Discover, Freedom, ED, BCE
Taxes/Misc: SPG

Limited value, might close: Arrival

Might add: First Tech, proper business card

mountaindewvoltage
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Re: Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

Postby mountaindewvoltage » Sat Mar 11, 2017 9:46 pm

CarefulBuilder14 wrote:
So I don't know what will happen...I don't know how sustainable CSR will be for Chase. In grocery checkout lines (where neither card earns bonus points), I know I see more Platinum cards than CSRs. It's transactions like those that make the cards profitable for issuers.


That would make sense though. The Platinum has been out for many years, the Chase Sapphire Reserve has been out for 7 months. Give it time for their potential number of cardholders to grow. I know if I had to pick between the two, it wouldn't be the Platinum. I look for dollar return value in addition to other benefits. Primary rental coverage is great, and I'd rather have 3 points/dollar worldwide on dining and a broader category of travel vs. 5 points/dollar on air and hotels booked through AMEX.

I'd like to see more transfer partners for the CSR though... It seems like there's only 11, and none of them are JetBlue, Delta, Hilton, or Hawaiian Airlines, unless they're specifically talking about 1:1 transfers, and have other partners in addition to the ones listed.

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CarefulBuilder14
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Re: Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

Postby CarefulBuilder14 » Sat Mar 11, 2017 11:38 pm

mountaindewvoltage wrote:I'd like to see more transfer partners for the CSR though... It seems like there's only 11, and none of them are JetBlue, Delta, Hilton, or Hawaiian Airlines, unless they're specifically talking about 1:1 transfers, and have other partners in addition to the ones listed.

There used to be some consensus that while Chase UR had fewer partners, they were generally better partners. I'm not sure of the extent to which that's still true for me. I've been having headaches with award availability for United and Hyatt, while Delta gives me a few decent options with no close-in award booking fee.

I focus more on perks and bonuses.
Warranties and sketchy merchants: Schwab Platinum
Price rewind: Costco
Travel insurance: Prestige, CSP
Perks: IHG, Hyatt
Rewards/Offers: Discover, Freedom, ED, BCE
Taxes/Misc: SPG

Limited value, might close: Arrival

Might add: First Tech, proper business card

mountaindewvoltage
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Re: Amex Plat AF Increase to $550

Postby mountaindewvoltage » Sun Mar 12, 2017 12:05 am

CarefulBuilder14 wrote:
mountaindewvoltage wrote:I'd like to see more transfer partners for the CSR though... It seems like there's only 11, and none of them are JetBlue, Delta, Hilton, or Hawaiian Airlines, unless they're specifically talking about 1:1 transfers, and have other partners in addition to the ones listed.

There used to be some consensus that while Chase UR had fewer partners, they were generally better partners. I'm not sure of the extent to which that's still true for me. I've been having headaches with award availability for United and Hyatt, while Delta gives me a few decent options with no close-in award booking fee.

I focus more on perks and bonuses.


I'm not sure what you mean by "better" partners. In my opinion, Delta and Hilton are popular partners, even if HHonors points aren't worth 1 cent a piece.



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